Labor does not seem to be making any ground on the Coalition. If anything, the Libs have gained votes, although this does appear to be in direct proportion to the votes One Nation has lost. The rednecks are back home again. The Democrats have been decimated, their vote seems to be shared between the Greens and Family First, ie, chalk and cheese.
Currently the ABC are saying that the Libs have picked up four seats from Labor (Greenway, Bass, Braddon, Wakefield), while Labor have regained Cunningham from the Greens, who will be unrepresented in the lower house. They are calling a Coalition majority of 20. Bloody hell.
The polls haven't closed in West Australia yet, but I think we can call this already as a Coalition win - and possibly with an increased majority.
But there's an interesting stat I've noticed. The Liberals have a swing of 3.3% on latest figures nationwide. The One Nation Party has a negative swing of 3.3%.
Wonder why....
The count has started. Polls closed in Tasmania at 5pm AEST. They'll close in NSW, Queensland, Victoria and the ACT at 6, SA and Northern Territory at 6.30, WA at 8.
My head says the Coalition will win by about 5 seats. My heart says Labor will win by any number. I'm giving the casting vote to my pancreas.
And the pancreatic verdict? It will be a hung parliament. Howard will be returned with a minority government supported by independents, who will abandon him for Labor after about three months.
October 8, 10:55 pm.
http://www.empirenotes.org/#08oct047
October 8, 10:55 pm. Apparently, the scales remain firmly in place. ABC News, polling a rather small group that was 35% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% Independent, got results of 44% thinking Kerry had won, 41% Bush, and 13% a tie. The fact that neither Bush nor Cheney has answered a single one of even the feeble attacks levied by Kerry and Edwards on how they have conducted the occupation seems n ...
I meant to do this earlier in the week, oh well. Now it's halfway through polling day in the eastern states.
In broad terms, I am advocating an above-the-line vote in the Senate in each state for The Greens. They, and the Democrats, have demonstrated their value as minorities in the Senate holding the balance of power. The Democrats, while looking good on their policy documents, have imploded over the past couple of years, perhaps fatally.
It seems such a waste of paper to have that huge senate ballot just so that I can do one vertical stroke in one box.
This is how I voted this morning in my eleventh House of Representatives election:
House of Representatives, Grayndler:
2 Philip Myers (Greens)
3 Sue Johnson (Socialist Alliance)
4 Jen Harrison (Democrats)
1 Anthony Albanese (Labor)
5 Stephanie Kokkolis (Liberal)
Senate, New South Wales:
An inspired choice for the 2004 prize. Here is the press release from the Norwegian Nobel Foundation:
The Nobel Peace Prize 2004
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2004 to Wangari Maathai for her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace.
